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By Sara Odendahl, CEO, Bend Chamber
On November 19, Oregon’s Office of Economic Analysis released its Q4 2025 Economic and Revenue Forecast, and the message is a mix of cautious realism and a small bit of budget relief. Oregon’s economy is still moving, but it’s doing so more slowly than the nation overall. In fact, the forecast notes Oregon’s GDP grew 0.8% in Q2 2025, compared to 2.1% for the U.S., and Oregon has averaged 1.6% growth over the past four years, versus 2.7% nationally. The state’s chief economist also continues to stress that an economy-wide recession is unlikely, but that doesn’t mean conditions feel strong on the ground.
That slower growth is showing up most clearly in the labor market. The forecast points to ongoing weakness in the private sector and highlights job losses across several industries over the past year. At the same time, Oregon’s longer-term outlook is being shaped by a new reality: slower population growth (about 0.5% annually through 2035). The report emphasizes that Oregon’s future workforce depends heavily on attracting and retaining residents, which is influenced by factors such as housing affordability, overall cost pressures, and education outcomes.
On the revenue side, the news is slightly better. Thanks to a modest economic upgrade and recent corporate tax payments, the state’s projected resources increased by $309.5 million compared with the prior forecast. Even so, the outlook remains tight: the forecast still projects a negative ending balance of -$63.1 million for the 2025–27 General Fund. The report suggests lawmakers should be able to rebalance the budget without raising taxes and underscores that many businesses—especially those still bouncing back from the last few years—have limited capacity to absorb additional tax burdens.
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Introduced on December 2, Governor Tina Kotek’s Prosperity Roadmap lays out a statewide game plan to strengthen Oregon’s economy over the next decade by aligning state agencies, local partners, business, and labor around a shared set of priorities. The roadmap is framed as a direct response to Oregon’s current economic headwinds, including sluggish job growth, elevated unemployment, population challenges, and competitiveness concerns, and it argues that Oregon needs a more coordinated approach to expand opportunity and improve affordability for families and employers.
At its core, the roadmap focuses on three outcomes: faster economic growth, more living-wage jobs, and a stronger climate for existing businesses to stay and expand. The Governor’s office sets ambitious targets aimed at Oregon’s GDP growth outpacing the national average, improving the state’s workforce standing, and boosting Oregon’s overall competitiveness for business investment. The roadmap also notes that even modest improvements in growth could generate meaningful new resources for core services over time.
To get there, the roadmap emphasizes practical, business-relevant actions such as reducing barriers to investment, speeding up permitting and project timelines, and making key upgrades to the backbone of the economy. These upgrades include energy capacity, broadband, transportation, water and wastewater, and industrial site readiness. It also calls for modernizing Oregon’s economic development toolkit, including incentives and programs used to support job creation, expanding engagement with major employers, and strengthening Oregon’s global trade and investment activities.
Finally, the roadmap signals a move from planning to implementation. It proposes new leadership and accountability structures like a Chief Prosperity Officer and a Governor’s Prosperity Council, and previews a potential FastTrack Program concept aimed at helping large, job-creating projects move more quickly through complex processes. Recommendations related to targeted tax changes are positioned for consideration in the 2027 legislative session, with the overall intent of supporting business growth, workforce opportunity, and long-term statewide prosperity.
