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By Express Employment Professionals
Cost of turnover jumps nearly $10K in one year as employers also expect to raise wages.
Hiring leaders across the country are sounding the alarm as half expect employee turnover to climb in 2026, marking a steep rise from recent years. A new Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll survey shows turnover expectations jumped from 39% in fall 2024 and 33% in fall 2023 to an eye-catching 50% in 2026.
The financial implications are also escalating.
The average cost of turnover has risen to $45,236, up sharply from $36,723 last year, signaling mounting pressures on companies already navigating a competitive labor landscape.
Larger organizations are expressing the most significant concern: 64% of companies with 500 or more employees expect turnover to rise, compared with significantly lower expectations among smaller businesses.
Drivers Behind the Expected Turnover
Among employers anticipating higher turnover in 2026:
- 37% point to increased workplace demands leading to more vacancies, up from 29% in fall 2024.
- 35% cite a competitive job market, rising from 23% last year.
- 32% attribute potential turnover to better pay and benefits offered elsewhere.
- 29% expect more employees to switch careers, an increase from 22% in fall 2024.
Wages Likely to Rise as Employers Respond
Despite concerns about turnover, most hiring managers report that wages are poised to increase. Seventy-five percent expect their company’s average wage to rise in 2026, while 18% foresee no change.
Job seekers hold a slightly more reserved view:
- 46% expect wages to increase.
- 40% expect wages to stay the same
Payscale’s 10th annual salary budget survey shows U.S. employers plan to allocate an average 3.5% salary increase for 2026, which is nearly the same as the 3.6% average increase given in 2025.
Survey Methodology
The Job Insights survey was conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of Express Employment Professionals from Nov. 3 to 19, 2025, among 1,002 U.S. hiring decision-makers.
The Job Seeker Report was conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of Express Employment Professionals from Nov. 7 to 20, 2025, among 1,003 adults ages 18 and older.
For full survey methodologies, please contact Sheena.Hollander@ExpressPros.com, Director of Corporate Communications & PR.
