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Bend economy expected to grow in
2007, just not as fast
What will happen with the
housing market, and will
consumers who have taken
billions of dollars of equity
out of their houses in the past
couple of years continue to
spend? Those are two of the
biggest questions that could
drive Oregon’s economy in 2007,
according to U.S. Bank economist
John Mitchell, the keynote
speaker at this morning’s
sold-out Vision ’07 Economic
Forecast Breakfast at The
Riverhouse. Mitchell gave his
usual informative outlook on
what Bend’s economy did in 2006
and projections of next year.
Among some of his comments: The
housing market will be
“extraordinarily important” to
the economy next year, but
construction of new residential
housing has declined in the past
four consecutive quarters. “The
housing boom is over,” he said.
Mitchell expects employment
growth in 2007 in Oregon to be
approximately 1.25 percent, down
from about 3.25 percent this
year. Recent data shows that
Bend continues to lead the state
in house price appreciation
(tracking the same houses year
after year), with a 7.37 percent
quarterly appreciation in the
second quarter of 2006 compared
to 2005, a 36.65 percent
increase in the year ending June
30, 2006, compared to the
previous year, and a whopping
99.36 percent over the past five
years. A scary statistic,
however: Nationwide, the savings
rate as a percentage of
disposable income fell to -.05
percent in 2005, the first time
since at least 1991 that it has
been below zero. Compare that
with 1991, when the savings rate
was 7.5 percent. Consumers have
been using the equity in their
houses “like ATMs,” Mitchell
said, but they’re spending the
money, not saving it.
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Join us for the Chamber Annual
Membership Meeting on Nov. 7
Please join us at 7 a.m. on
Tuesday, Nov. 7, for the second
Chamber Annual Membership
Meeting at the Tower Theatre.
Chamber President and CEO Mike
Schmidt and staff will explain
what the Chamber has done for
you in the past year, and board
members will be there. This is a
good opportunity to network with
fellow Chamber members, further
understand what services are
available to you as a Chamber
member and enjoy coffee and
pastries. There is no cost. You
can RSVP on-line
HERE
or by calling 382-3221 no later
than Nov. 6.
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Remaining tenants of first
closing mobile home park to
receive assistance
The Bend City Council decided on
Wednesday to financially assist
the last remaining 10 tenants of
the Cascade Mobile Manor mobile
home park off Reed Market Road
just east of Third Street, which
is due to close Nov. 20. The
council agreed to spend up to
$30,000 from the city’s
affordable housing fund to
either lend money to families to
move the four homes that can be
moved, and assist the other six
families who live in older
mobile homes that can’t be moved
get set up in rental housing.
City staff, mobile home park
owners and mobile home owners
are still working on a
compromise ordinance that would
allow park owners to redevelop
their land and not leave mobile
home owners stranded if they
can’t find space to move to or
can’t move their homes. This is
going to become more of an issue
as more mobile home parks close.
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Selling, buying a house becoming
a challenge
Last week’s survey
question was, “Have you tried to
buy or sell a house in Bend
lately, and what has been your
experience?” Judging from
replies, the climate definitely
has changed in Bend. Some
responses:
“We’re sitting on a $1.7
million right now with not many
showings. The price range limits
our market, but we’ve always
sold our product before it’s
even done, and this house has
been done for 3 months without a
sale.”
“I live on a hill exactly
halfway between Redmond and
Bend, on 2.66 acres, in a home
that is replicated throughout
the expansive ‘neighborhood.’ In
June, two identical houses as
mine sold for nearly $200,000
more than I bought my house for,
and each sold in about three
weeks. … My house has been on
the market for 90 days and
although it has been visited
about weekly, there has been no
taker. … My real estate broker
has asserted that prices in Bend
will not decline. I would bet
against that.”
“All I can say is, I am
glad that I sold and bought a
house last year.”
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This week’s survey question
Should the city of Bend use
affordable housing fund money to
assist mobile home owners who
can’t move their homes from
parks that are closing because
the mobile homes are basically
worthless? Why or why not?
Please e-mail your responses to:
jeff@bendchamber.org.
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